MODELING THE ECOLOGICAL STATE OF ANTHROPOGENIC LANDSCAPES BASED ON SPACE GEOMONITORING

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to describe the results of using remotely sensed data based on system methods and models to assess and simulate the development of the ecological state of the environment. Adaptation of the method of adaptive balance of causes is done on the example of two anthropogenic landscapes that differ in the components structure. The authors present the results modeling of the ecological state of the urban landscape of the city of Kiev and the forecasting of the water quality of the Kiev reservoir, depending on the subsequent changes in the components of the wetland anthropogenic landscapes. Design/methodology/approach. The Adaptive Balance of Causes model (ABC-method) allows us to simulate and predict the development of complex systems and perform computation with all the modules, interacting each of which is in a state of dynamic equilibrium. The influence functions maintain the balance they connect this module with the other modules of the system. This technique consists in developing a conceptual model and creating a scheme of causal relations between system elements, from which permits to construct a system diagram of the model. Findings. Based on the result of the assessment of the changes of the last 20 years on the territory of Kiev, a model was built, which responds adequately to changes in the state of components of the urban landscape. Thus, the increase of green zones leads to a significant improvement in the ecological state of the city, and the increase of anthropogenic impact and construction expansion cause deterioration. Predicted values of the saprobity index of the Kiev reservoir based on a steady flow of processes of eutrophication of aquatic vegetation for the next ten years were obtained using the ABC method. An example is given of a reverse process of transformation of anthropogenically changed aquatic landscapes of the Pripyat and Dnipro river to the natural state, by restoring the lost aquatic landscapes in the absence of man's activity after the Chernobyl disaster. Practical value/implications. The proposed approach provides an opportunity not only to conduct a qualitatively new level of monitoring of the impact of landscape elements on the territory state, but also to predict changes in the ecological situation with minor errors and develop a sustainable management plan and public services.