A scenario-and-network approach to the urban planning development of the Abakan-Yenisei settlement system

Introduction. The urban development of livable areas in southern Siberia, rich for natural resources, has encountered a number of problems. They include sparse population, a low-density network of transportation routes and engineering networks, and a growing socio-economic gap between small towns and megalopolises. The self-defeating pattern of the present-day centripetal urbanization leads to the “geographical compression” of the population into several points on the map. Domestic urban planning relies on Soviet developments and follows the arbitrary pattern of the free-wheeling market. Against this background, it is necessary to search for new scientific fundamentals. The hypothesis, proposed by the author, allows predicting urban development activities, changing their direction by influencing certain points in the settlement system, that are known as settlement points, or small towns and villages having unlocked urban development potential. According to the author’s hypothesis, settlement nodes have a trigger effect (they can trigger changes in the entire settlement system). Materials and methods. Approved area planning schemes and master layout plans were used in this work. Methods for identifying high-potential settlement nodes are proposed. They are a combination of network and scenario-based approac­hes to projecting urban development activities. This method was used to identify the settlement nodes in southern Siberia (the Baikal-Angarsk settlement area). Results. Eight settlement nodes, having unlocked development potential, were identified within the boundaries of the Abakan-Yenisei settlement area (Achinsk, Shira, Abakan-Minusinsk, Abaza, Ak-Dovurak, Kyzyl, Irbeyskoye and Kansk). Their urban transformation through 2050 is proposed in compliance with their economic specialization, including the development of the local industry, power generation, recreation and agriculture. Conclusions. In the present-day environment, urban planning activities should be based on the development of projected scenarios. Projected scenarios describe possible changes to the planning framework of a settlement system, which allows identifying settlement nodes as the points of target urban impacts focused on the rational development of livable areas in southern Siberia, rich in natural resources.