Forecasting Steel Prices Using ARIMAX Model: A Case Study of Turkey

Steel prices for Turkey as a major steel producer and exporter have substantial importance to be predicted. The ARIMA model with explanatory variables is used to assess the out-of-sample forecast accuracy with the univariate ARIMA as a benchmark. The results revealed that despite expectations, The ARIMA model with explanatory variables could not perform superior results comparing ARIMA models in a 6-month forecast horizon