When the Sun Sets on Net Metering: How the Cancellation of Net Metering Impacted the Potential Adoption of Residential Rooftop Solar Photovoltaics in Regina, Saskatchewan

Rooftop solar photovoltaics will play a role in decarbonizing electricity generation and meeting global climate goals . Policymakers can benefit from understanding how their policy choices impact rooftop solar PV adoption . We conduct a case study of Regina, Saskatchewan to determine the extent to which solar policy changes in that Canadian province have impacted the relative desirability of rooftop solar PV . We assess financial returns that can be achieved in Regina under three policy scenarios : net metering , net billing , and net billing with a capital incentive . We use GIS analysis to identify suitable roofs in Regina and assess any shading that may occur . We calculate hourly capacity factors for these roofs using solar irradiation data , temperature data , and shading factors . We match the simulated solar output results with hourly load data to simulate over 4 million potential roof - load combinations and calculate NPV and net monthly return for each combination . We conduct a telephone survey of 451 Regina residents to assess willingness to install solar at different levels of financial return and compare these results to our solar simulations . Our results indicate that a move from net metering to net billing reduced financial returns from rooftop solar and lowered solar potential from 129 Gigawatt- hours ( GWh ) per year to 99 GWh / yr in Regina. The introduction of a capital incentive grant by the federal government has helped increase solar potential upwards to 120 GWh / yr . The capital incentive grant may also help overcome high discount rates by providing a larger upfront benefit to households that install solar.