Analysis of factors influencing road stability in the hinterland connection of South Sumatra, Indonesia, using multi-linear regression

Palembang city is the capital of South Sumatra, a province in Indonesia known for its extensive hinterlands which serve as production areas for various agricultural commodities. To facilitate connectivity to these areas, robust road infrastructure capable of supporting heavy transport vehicles is essential. Currently, over-dimension overloading (ODOL) trucks are the primary cause of road damage. This research aimed to analyze factors influencing road stability, using independent variables. A multi-linear regression (MLR) model with a stepwise method was employed. The anticipated outcome of this study was to identify the factors affecting the stability of roads connecting Boom Baru port to hinterland production areas. The Durbin-Watson statistic, used to test for autocorrelation, showed a value of 1.612 for the sixth model, which indicates no autocorrelation (values range from 0 to 2). This suggests that the other five models are also free from autocorrelation. According to the coefficient table, model number 6 displayed the highest R-squared value of 0.676, though its constant was negatively high. Ideally, it should be positive or less than one. Thus, model number 3 is considered more suitable as it also has a high R-squared value of 0.650. The stability of roads depends on the volume of trips to agricultural areas, the type of pavement surface, and the ease of access to the port.