Green Steel for Post-War Ukraine

The steel industry's clean energy transition can enable new market creation and economic growth stimulation. Yet, the most efficient and feasible pathway to decouple the sector from fossil fuels remains unclear, particularly within developing nations and unstable socio-political contexts. Here, a blueprint for reconfiguring plant locations and reallocating resources is developed through a Ukrainian case study under two scenarios, which capture potential post-war conditions. Framed by regrowth of Ukraine's export-oriented steel industry and prospective European Union accession, green iron and steel trade strategies are devised. A steel supply chain optimisation model underpins the techno-economic, spatially granular analysis of energy and material flows, which utilises the inputs from a separate cost-minimised renewable energy, green hydrogen, and green ammonia production model. Results show that optimal supply chain configurations rely on mixed emissions-free energy profiles, the emergence of new steelmaking sites nearby high-quality renewables, regional alliances for green iron and steel market creation, and multi-billion-dollar investment.