THREATS TO SHIPPING IN THE BLACK SEA AND THEIR GLOBAL IMPACT

The article examines the threats to cargo transportation in the Black Sea and the directions of their impact on the maritime transport industry both regionally and globally. The assessment of the military component of these threats is important for all aspects of the transport fleet, primarily because the significance of military threats is greater than that of other risks to maritime transport. In particular, it is indicated that the consequences of threats to the merchant fleet due to hostilities in the Black Sea are not only sunken and damaged vessels, people lost, but also dynamic changes in freight rates and even an increase in the average service life of merchant vessels of the warring parties. This increases the risks of accidents and has already led to significant threats to marine biocenosis, which contradicts the principles of green shipping. The above principles, as proven by research, are also contradicted by the trend of reducing the development of alternative fuel infrastructure, which leads to a reduction in the possibilities of its further use by merchant fleet vessels. The importance of introducing fragmented logistics schemes, primarily expanding the use of the ro-ro network, for reducing the impact of threats is noted. The study confirms that the threat of sea pollution with a significant uncertain component is also represented by the systematic illegal transshipment of oil products in the open sea to avoid sanctions. At the same time, the study indicates that the significant uncertainty of wartime threats complicates the relevant assessment and forecasting of the parameters of all aspects of maritime transportation. It is also noted that the impact of the uncertainty of military risks limits the use of recursive vector autoregression for forecasting the freight rate. Therefore, a mathematical model is proposed to separate uncertainty from the impact of other factors that are considered as "colored" noise. It is also proposed to use an interval approach with an uneven distribution of the resulting function over the area of existence with its subsequent refinement by parameter estimation methods with other metrics. The mathematical model allows taking into account the different orientations of the impact vectors of uncertain factors, which increases the relevance of the forecast. The increasing relevance of maritime transport forecasts will contribute to risk prevention measures and resource provision to mitigate their consequences. Taking into account the uncertain component of risks is important not only in wartime, since this component is also present in maritime transport risks in peacetime. This will ensure the appropriate level of sustainability of cargo transportation by sea, reasonably shape the directions for the introduction of digital, green technologies, methods for optimizing logistics routes, etc.