Green-Based Generation Expansion Planning For Kenya Using Wien Automatic Software Package WASP IV Model.

ABSTRACT In 21st Century there is growing interests in the global power generation sector to integrate more renewable energy RE resources in least-cost generation expansion planning for security of supply and sustainable development. However little has been done in Kenya yet she was endowed with enormous unexploited RE resources. For this reason the study derived an optimal green least-cost generation expansion plan OGLCGEP taking 2010 as the base year to 2031 using the WASP IV model. The study findings showed that the OGLCGEP had a capacity of 1382MW at a peak demand of 1227MW in the base year. However annual RE capacity additions over the planning horizon will raise the capacities to 19828MW at a peak demand of 16905MW in the reference demand forecast scenario RDFS and 26968MW at a peak demand of 22985MW in the higher demand forecast scenario HDFS. Consequently a 71 to 78 green generation would be realized with 1.94 -3.02 LOLP. Additionally the envisaged RE system would supply 7721GWh to 105766 GWh in the RDFS and 143830GWh in the HDFS with a cumulative total of 18 to 23.6Mt CO2 emissions. Moreover the energy systems cost would be US 14.62 billion in the RDFS US 5.34 billion higher in the HDFS by 2031. Subsequently the systems net present value would be US 2.16 billion in the RDFS US 4.92 billion higher in the HDFS besides potential carbon credits. Thus the OGLCGEP would be a feasible option and the future for high RE grid integration for Kenya. Therefore the research recommends future studies to focus on modeling of the Kenya national-grid reliability and stability with high penetration of variable renewable energy sources.