Modeling and forecasting of wheat in India and their yield Sustainability

Forecasting production behaviours of the major crops play vital role towards the planners for food and nutritional security. The planners should have idea about the likely production scenario of the major crops. Wheat and rice are the two major staple food crops in Indian subcontinent. As such performance of wheat production is largely associated with food security of this continent. In this paper attempt has been made to examine the performance of wheat production in India and its major states during the 1950?2009. This study also focuses on forecasting the cultivated area and production of wheat in India using time series modelling technique using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The success of agriculture depends on so many factors from formulation of policy to its implementation, availability of inputs, climatic conditions etc. Effective forecasting process should take all these factors into consideration. Instead of using uni-variate time trend ARIMA models, the study feels inclusion of factors of production may improve the quality as external exogenous predictors well as forecasting power of the model.