FORECASTING THE INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES IN THE CONTROLLING CONTEXT

The article says, that nowadays innovations are a necessary part of the process to ensure longterm and sustainable operation of enterprises, an important tool for competitive advantage. However, the efficiency of innovations depends on a flexible and adaptive management of the process. There is a need in the formation of an appropriate system of governance, one of the most important components of which is a subsystem of information and analytical support management, decision making. Under these conditions, the author believes, one should pay attention to the concept of controlling, the prediction being its important element. It is noted, that the development of innovative forecasting is one of the controlling functions. Its realization is suggested, using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling. In particular, analysis reporting top ten industrial enterprises of the Kharkov region, allowed to suggest that innovative development directly influences the dynamics of the enterprises competitiveness. Further research has shown, that there is a clear correlation between the index of competitiveness and the innovation potential indicator. In addition, the presence of autocorrelation in the general trend and indicator of competitiveness were revealed. As a result, the base model was built, predicting the competitiveness of industrial enterprises, depending on the dynamics of innovation potential, a class of autoregressive equations models with distributed lags - autoregressive distributed lags (ADL) ? was chosen, which, in addition to the factor variable, contains one or more previous values of the resulting variable, i.e. takes the time lag into account.