Asset Market Linkages in a Regime Switching Environment: Evidence from Commodity and Stock Markets in India

Time series models investigating the linkages between various asset markets (Commodity and Equity) in India have assumed a symmetric and linear relationship between them. They examine these interrelationships by assuming the presence of a uniform economic state. However the returns from commodity futures and stock market do not show a continuous trend but exhibit time varying behaviour i.e. the returns of stocks might be higher in a certain economic condition and it may fall as the economic environment changes due to financial crises, oil price rise, rupee depreciation etc. Similarly the return of commodities is also subject to variation with the changing economic conditions due to which the basic assumptions of stationary and linearity of time series models gets refuted. Therefore, this paper empirically examines the interrelationships between commodity futures (Energy, Metal and Agriculture) and stock markets in dynamic economic states by employing Markov Regime Switching model proposed by Hamilton (2005) which has the capability of capturing temporal asymmetries and nonlinear dynamics of time series. For each market a composite index indicating the overall movement and performance of a particular investment asset has been considered. In order to provide robust results this paper uses daily data from 2006 to 2014 which significantly represents different states in the Indian Economy. The result of the study confirms the impact of economic environment on Indian commodity and stock markets and validates the presence of two distinct regimes: a “tranquil regime” representing the state of economic expansion and a “crisis regime” representing the state of economic decline. Additionally, the result confirms that commodities and stock markets oscillate between high and low volatility regimes and this movement is different across different commodity class (Energy, Metal and Agriculture). In a portfolio, when commodity futures are combined with stock, due consideration must be given to the state varying behaviour of different asset class. However, previous studies on performance of commodity futures in context of portfolio have been done in a single time period/static context and therefore the results of the study provide interesting insights for investors and portfolio managers. By detecting the switching points in the economic states, they can rebalance their portfolio accordingly so as to reduce loss and enhance portfolio returns.