THE EFFECT OF SIMPLIFYING THE METHODOLOGY OF THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THE COAL COAL EJECTION HAZARD ON THE RELIABILITY OF THE FORECAST

Two methods of the coal seam outburst hazard current forecast are considered: according to the initial gas emission rate and the output of drilling fines during the control holes drilling and its simplified version by the seam structure and the gas emission initial rate. A quantitative estimate of the relative error in determining the range of non-hazardous values of the emission factor due to the simplification of the sudden outbursts current forecast technique by not taking into account the output of the drilling fines. Refusal to measure the drilling chippings output was due to a large error in measuring the drilling chippings output while maintaining the forecast for moistened coal due to its adhesion to the drill rod. It is shown that this error is more than 57% for the Vorkuta mines, and more than 27% for the other basins and deposits in the eastern regions of Russia.