Modelling of the process of micromycetus survival in fruit and berry syrups

. In order to develop methods for preserving fruit and berry syrup, which exclude the use of high-temperature sterilization and preservatives, the survival of spores of micromycetes (B. nivea molds) in model media with different concentration of food osmotically active substances (sucrose, ethyl alcohol, citric acid) at a certain concentration of lethal effects on microorganisms. It has been established that model media (juice based syrups from blueberries) with a mass content of 4 % and 6 % alcohol, 50 % sucrose, 1 % and 2 % titrated acids, have a lethal effect on spores of B. nivea molds. The regression equation is obtained expressing the dependence of the amount of spores of B. nivea molds on the concentration of sucrose, acid, alcohol and the storage time of syrups. The form of the dependence and direction of the connection between the variables is established – a negative linear regression, which is expressed in the uniform decrease of the function. The estimation of quality of the received regression model is defined. The deviations of the calculated data from the data of the initial set are calculated. The proposed model has sufficient reliability, since the regression function is defined, interpreted and justified, and the estimation of the accu-racy of the regression analysis meets the requirements.