ANALISIS DAMPAK LIBERALISASI PERDAGANGAN BARANG PADA PERUNDINGAN INDONESIA–EU CEPA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

European Union (EU) is one of the main destinations of Indonesian export; however, the Indonesia's market share has been left behind compared to some other ASEAN countries. In 2015, Indonesia's market share in the EU has reached only 0.37%, which was still left behind from the market share of Thailand (0.48%), Malaysia (0.49%) and Vietnam (0.74%) (Trademap, 2017). Indonesia requires a market access to increase market share in the EU, for instance by liberalizing trade in goods. This study aims to analyze the impact of liberalization of trade in goods on the Indonesian economy with two options: Simulation 1(SIM 1) by reducing tariff 100% for 4,945 tariff lines based on HS 6 digits, and Simulation 2 (SIM 2) by reducing 100% tariffs except 260 tariffs lines of EU and 235 tariff lines of Indonesia. Simulation 2 was conducted to consider the similiar modalities undertaken by Vietnam-EU Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (Vietnam-EU PCA). The analytical methods used Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model in the Global Trade Analytical Project (GTAP). The result shows that simulation 1 gives a better impact compared to simulation 2, as the level of economic growth and the welfare of Indonesia. Simulation 1 is larger than Simulation 2. However, Indonesia can use the modalities similar with Vietnam-EU PCA modalities as the basis of the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (I-EU CEPA) negotiations because the difference is not significant.