SIMULATED MODEL OF THE FLIGHT SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN GENERAL AVIATION ENTERPRISES OPERATING CORPORATE AND BUSINESS AIRCRAFT

The paper describes a method for predicting aviation events in general aviation enterprises on the basis of a simulated model of the flight safety management system (FSMS) and identification of time series allowing the use of simulated models of the flight safety management system as a tool for studying the logic of the cause-and-effect mechanism of aviation events with the subsequent formation of the list of substantiated flight safety measures for the predicted system performance. The dynamics of the predicted indicators in the field of stable and unstable operation of the simulated flight safety management system is studied. For unstable operation areas, the cause-effect mechanism of the origin and development of aviation events is substantiated and analyzed. The physical meaning of the identification of aviation events by time series is the implementation of the flight safety management system at each phase point of the unstable operation area, taking into account the logic of the cause-and-effect mechanism of aviation events, thus creating a list of substantiated measures with the required resources in the form of cognitive maps to make managerial decisions to ensure flight safety for the predicted performance of the aviation and technical system.