TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF THE PRIMARY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET IN KYIV

The subject and the purpose of research. The purpose of the article is researching the features of the evolution of the primary residential real estate market in Kyiv, analysing the regularity of its development, creating economic and mathematical models of price dynamics that can be used to predict its future trend. Method or methodology of the work. The research uses methods of comparison, generalization, scientific abstraction, deduction, analysis and synthesis, modeling and the system approach. The methodology of statistical analysis is based on methods of statistical observation, grouping, formalization, regression analysis and time series analysis. Results. The dynamics of prices in the primary residential real estate market in Kyiv from 2005 to 2017 is analyzed. The evolution of the time series based on the fundamental analysis of the real estate market is investigated. There are proposed mathematical models that describe the dynamics of the cost of 1 sq.m of apartments. The created mathematical model allowed to calculate the predict of the cost of 1 sq.m of apartments in new buildings in Kyiv for 2018 - 2019. Conclusions. Mathematical models that were obtained for individual parts of the time series expect price dynamics with high accuracy. High predictive accuracy of models of the last time period (Q2-2014 - current time) allows using them for predicting the cost of apartments in new buildings in Kyiv in 2018 - 2019. This research, based on predicted prices, allows companies that build and sell apartments in Kiev to plan future revenues, manage income effectively, minimize risks. It gives additional competitive advantages for companies at the primary residential real estate market.