THE CONSTRUCTION OF PREDICTIVE-MATHEMATICAL MODELING IN PLANNING THE EFFECTIVE USE OF ARABLE LAND AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL

Forecasting is an integral element of scientific knowledge. This allows us to draw conclusions about the development of the studied processes in the future, taking into account the influence of internal and external factors of existing processes. In land management, land is the object of forecasting and has a significant role in making managerial decisions for the efficient use of land resources. Agricultural lands are the most valuable, but they are classified as hard-to-renew resources. So, forecasting land management is particularly important. By combining the methods of forecasting with mathematical modeling, it is ensured in the perspective of predicting more accurate future realities about the impact of degradation processes on crop yields and the prodlisiness of various scenarios for making managerial decisions on soil conservation measures. The object of forecasting is the use of arable lands, which have a negative manifestation of degradation processes in the forest-steppe Pravoberezhnaya province of the Kiev region. The calculation was carried out on the basis of mathematical modeling of the predictiveadaptive method, which took into account statistical data in the calculation. The main purpose of the calculation is to pollute the various intensity of the impact of degradation processes on the productivity of arable land, which allowed to predict the maximum increase in the yield of grain crops.