Probability Models for Assessing the Effectiveness of Advertising Channels in the Internet Environment

Marketing specialists simultaneously use several channels to attract visitors to websites. There is a difficulty in the separate assessment of not only the efficiency and conversion of each channel, but also in their interconnection. Problems occur when users visit a website from several sources and only after that do the key action. Different models of attribution are used to assess the effectiveness and selection of the most optimal channels. The models are reviewed in the present paper. However, we suggested using the multi-channel attribution, which provides an aggregate assessment of multi-channel sequences, by taking into account their interdependent nature. The purpose of paper was to create an attribution model that comprehensively evaluated multi-channel sequences and showed the effect of each channel on the conversion. The presented model of attribution can be based on the theory of graphs or Markov chains. The first method of calculation was more visual; the second (based on Markov chains) allowed working with a large amount of data. As a result, it presented a model of multi-channel attribution that was based on Markov processes or graph theory. It allowed for maximum comprehensive assessment of the impact of each channel on the conversion. On the basis of two methods, calculations were carried out confirming the adequacy of applied model for assigned tasks.