One of the Ways of Artificial Intelligence Implementation in Forecasting
Journal: Bulletin of Baikal State University (Vol.28, No. 3)Publication Date: 2018-09-03
Authors : T.I. Belych; A.V. Burdukovskaya;
Page : 500-507
Keywords : oil; forecasting; artificial intelligence; Holt technique; temporal series; neural network;
Abstract
Oil and its refinery products have always been the most important source of energy for modern society, and, therefore, one cannot imagine the life of mankind in any field of its activity without this resource. Energy, military defense, transport, agriculture, domestic needs of the population, the economy of the country are directly dependent on oil and its prices, it plays an extremely important role for Russia in particular, since it is the main revenue item for the state, therefore, forecasting oil prices is a primary task. The purpose of the article is to forecast the prices for this resource for April-August 2018 on the basis of the neural network model use as one of the ways to implement artificial intelligence. Oil prices have been chosen as the object of forecasting, and the subject is the dynamics of oil prices. The choice of the object and the subject of forecasting was conditioned by the fact that the price of oil is one of the main factors affecting the state and pace of development of the domestic economy, and primarily GDP. The pricing of many types of oil is determined by the price of the Brent crude oil reference mark, including the cost of three out of five Russian export brands: Urals, Siberian Light and REBCO, calculated on the basis of Brent prices.
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