Comparative evaluation of approaches to modelling kinetics of microbial thermal death as in the case of Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris

Microbial death kinetics modelling is an integral stage of developing the food thermal sterilisation regimes. At present, a large number of models have been developed. Their properties are usually being accepted as adequate even beyond boundaries of experimental microbiological data zone. The wide range of primary models existence implies the lack of universality of each ones. This paper presents a comparative assessment of linear and nonlinear models of microbial death kinetics during the heat treatment of the Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris spore form. The research allowed finding that single-phase primary models (as adjustable functions) are statistically acceptable for approximation of the experimental data: linear – the Bigelow' the Bigelow as modified by Arrhenius and the Whiting-Buchanan models; and nonlinear – the Weibull, the Fermi, the Kamau, the Membre and the Augustin models. The analysis of them established a high degree of variability for extrapolative characteristics and, as a result, a marked empirical character of adjustable functions, i.e. unsatisfactory convergence of results for different models. This is presumably conditioned by the particularity and, in some cases, phenomenology of the functions themselves. Consequently, there is no reason to believe that the heat treatment regimes, developed on the basis of any of these empirical models, are the most effective. This analysis is the first link in arguing the necessity to initiate the research aimed at developing a new methodology for determining the regimes of food thermal sterilisation based on analysis of the fundamental factors such as ones defined spore germination activation and their resistance to external impact.