CHRONIC HEART FAILURE DEVELOPMENT PROGNOSIS IN PATIENTS WITH VITAMIN D DEFICIENCY IN DEPENDENCE TO THE PRES-ENCE OF PATHOLOGICAL FORMS OF ERYTH-ROCYTES USING A LOGISTIC REGRESSION

The choice of the research is determined by a high percentage of various complications in patients with coronary heart disease, with not only the cardiovascular system, but also other organs. This situation often develops on the background of vitamin D deficiency and quickly leads to chronic heart failure due to the lack of an early recognition system and reliable prediction methods, which leads to low efficiency of treatment and prevention of such complications. This is the cause of the high mortality rate among these patients. The purpose of the work is to develop a math-ematical model using the regression equations to predict the development of severe chronic heart failure in pa-tients diagnosed with vitamin D deficiency. Research methods. 120 patients (58.6 ± 6.65 years) with the level of vitamin D deficiency were divided into group A (with an average level of vitamin D - 19 0-23.7 pg/ml) and group B (with a low level of vitamin D to 10.9 pg/ml). They underwent anthropometric examina-tion, laboratory, clinical and instrumental studies imme-diately after the discovery of vitamin D deficiency and 12 months later in order to identify cardiovascular pathology. An SF-36 questionnaire was used to assess the quality of life. Preparations erythrocytes of peripheral blood were examined in a JEOL-25A-T225 scanning electron microscope (Japan), and the morphometric program ImageJ determined the average corpuscular erythrocyte volume. The method of logistic regression allowed de-veloping an appropriate formula to establish the likeli-hood of the influence of various pathological factors on the development of chronic heart failure in people with vitamin D deficiency, taking into account the size and shape of the erythrocytes of peripheral blood. If the result is in the range from 0 to 45%, it is rated as “min. risk” for the development of chronic heart failure, if the result is 46-75%, it is rated as “med. risk”; if it exceeds 76%, it is rated as “high risk” development of chronic heart failure. Results. The study served to determine more ac-curately the likelihood of chronic heart failure during the year: if a patient had a positive predictive value was low, then the probability that he would not develop chronic heart failure with a favorable prognosis and negative predictive value was 96.6-100.0%. If a patient with a pre-predicted high-risk sensi-tivity of the test is 100.0%, then in terms of diagnostic specificity the probability of developing chronic heart failure with an unfavorable prognosis will be 93.9%, while the accuracy is 96.0%. According to the results of cluster analysis, a multidimensional statistically based scheme-model was created that allowed classifying all patients into homoge-neous groups according to the level of vitamin D defi-ciency and the number of irreversible forms of peripheral red blood cells. The set of various indicators were divided into separate clusters, which can be used as prognostic criteria and points of application of various specific ther-apy tools to optimize and improve the leading indicators of the somatic health of these patients. Conclusions. The established model for predict-ing the development of chronic heart failure has a rather high sensitivity and, if the results of the prognosis indicate a high risk of developing chronic heart failure, even standard therapy will have adverse results and such a patient should expect various complications, which is the basis for the development of intensive measures their prevention.