Evaluation of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of rainfed wheat production in Kurdistan province

Global warming has changed the pattern of temperature and precipitation distribution and will affect the production of crops such as rainfed wheat. In current study, by using correlation analysis and Iterative Chi-square analysis the wheat yield's relationship with temperature and precipitation variables (in Saqez, Sanandaj, Bijar, and Zarrine obato Stations) was determined, and used to project the crop yield under climate change scenarios. The daily outputs of seven selected CMIP5 models under RCP8.5 scenario for the period 2045 to 2065 were used and corrected by Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function matching (EDCDFm) method. The results showed that precipitation at the time of planting and during the flowering stage, the maximum temperature just before winter dormancy stage and during the flowering, the minimum temperature of January and February months are the most significant factors affecting the crop yield. The projected climatic conditions showed that the maximum temperature rise in November, December, April, and May will be unfavorable for crop production. Increased both maximum and minimum temperatures of months of January and February may provide more favorable conditions. Also, the projection of precipitation indicated that decreased rainfall of April and May, would lead to unfavorable moisture conditions. Unlike, increased precipitation in November could improve the moisture conditions at the time of sowing which favors greater yield. DOI: 10.22125/agmj.2019.178256.1062