Interregional Tourism Flows Modeling as the Response to Optimise National Competitiveness

The objective of this research is forecasting regional tourist activities in Russia basedon economic-mathematical modeling of interregional tourist flows. Design/methodology/approach: The study employed a quantitative research methodologyusing both primary and secondary data drawn from Rosstat (Russian Federal State StatisticsService). For modeling of interregional tourism flows within national economic territory themethods of mathematical application were used with quantitative evaluation and forecasting.A formal model and empirical evidence are presented. To describe domestic tourism,a destination-origin matrix based on Marketing-mix elements is constructed, the coefficients ofa tourist attraction for different Russian regions are calculated. Design and methodology weredrawn based on the analysis of the numerous thematical research papers of national andinternational authors. Findings: As a result of research, the definition of a “tourist region” was specified, tourismdevelopment trends studied, a regional touristic competitive rating of Russian territories wascompiled. The suggested economic mathematical approach allowed to evaluate interregionalchanges of tourist flows influenced by growth of population income, tourist services qualityand prices. Research/practical implications: These findings might be used in regional developmentaccording to governmental regional social-economic development programs. This work will beinteresting for private and state decision makers in tourism and hospitality to help Russia toleverage its huge but greatly under-rated and untapped potential as an attractive touristdestination. Originality/value: The value of this work is enabling modeling of management decisionstowards to the trends in the development of tourism regions in Russia. Using methods ofmathematical application, we could build a comprehensive model for evaluation and predictionof interregional tourist competitiveness and obtain the results with a correspondence of thestudies' objective.