Dampak Tarif Impor Output dan Input Terhadap Probabilitas Perusahaan Keluar dari Pasar

Theoretically, the impact of output and input import tarif on firm's performance is different, however this have never been shown empirically in Indonesia. This study aims at examining the effect of input and output tarifs on the possibility of firms to exit. Study utilized probit model which is considered as one of the Cummulative Distribution Function (CDF) Model by Indonesian Manufacturing Firms Data from 2003-2014 it was found that competition effects resulting from lower output tarifs exerts greater impact on the likelihood of exit but decreasing input tarifs will actually reduce the probability of exit firms. After classifying our sample into a different group based on observed characteristics of industry and firm, we found firms that produce consumer good, labor intensive firm, small firms, firms in competitive industry have a higher probability to exit. The study suggested that import tariff policy needs to be assessed both in terms of commodity types and in terms of firm characteristics.