PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP KINERJA EKSPOR UTAMA PERTANIAN INDONESIA

The exchange rate is one aspect that affects export competitiveness. From 2013 to 2015, exchange rate volatility increased, especially in the final quarter of 2015, which was 16.90%. Indonesia's main agricultural export conditions in the year on average experienced a decline. This paper analyzes the effect of exchange rate volatility on the performance of Indonesia's main agricultural exports to major trading partner countries using the gravity model. The main agricultural exports analyzed were natural rubber, coffee, shrimp, and Crude Palm Oil (CPO). The ARCH-GARCH model is used to measure exchange rate volatility. The analysis shows that exchange rate volatility harms on Indonesia's exports of natural rubber, coffee, and shrimp. This means, the more the rupiah exchange rate fluctuates will reduce Indonesia's natural rubber, coffee and shrimp exports to the main trading partner countries. The negative influence also indicates the existence of risk aversion by business actors. Some recommendations for the Government of Indonesia based on the study findings are maintaining exchange rate stability, easy access to financial institutions, implementing hedging, long-term contracts, and maintaining commodity production growth.