GLOBAL CRUDE OIL PRICE AND DOMESTIC FOOD COMMODITY PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

Globally, studies examining the nexus between global crude oil prices and food commodity prices in domestic markets are scant. Employing a panel data model of 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2010 - 2017, this study investigates the impact of global crude oil's price change on some local food commodity prices (imported soybean, local soybean, local rice, and local maize). Previous studies found that local food commodity prices in some countries were not affected by global crude oil prices; however, this study, by controlling other factors which could affect local commodity prices, finds different results. This study's findings indicate that global crude oil prices could affect Indonesia's local commodity prices due to higher shipping costs in import activity. In addition, global commodity prices are also proved to affect all commodities examined in this study, which implies that local food commodity prices in Indonesia are influenced by the international market. This study provides input to policymakers in Indonesia to consider the movement of global crude oil prices and global commodity prices in stabilizing local food commodity prices in Indonesia, especially the imported commodities.