Prospects for Changes in the Labor Sphere in the Digitalization of the Economy in the Inertial and Target Scenarios of Ukraine's Development

The article analyzes the prospects for changes in the labor sphere under the conditions of digitalization. The analysis was carried out according to two scenarios of Ukraine's development: inertial and target. The object of the research is the labor sphere with a certain system of social and labor relations, which is changing in the context of digitalization. Based on the results of the study, a system of factors and consequences of the impact of digitalization on the labor sphere was determined, which made it possible to simulate a system for the formation of socio-economic risks caused by the digitalization of the economy. The use of a scientific and methodological approach based on the Concept of Path analysis is proposed. This made it possible to assess social risks even with changes in baseline indicators. The changes in the labor sphere during digital transformations were determined according to the inertial and target scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian eco- nomy. According to the results of the analysis, while maintaining a low level of economic development, outdated technological modes of industry (inertial scenario), it is expected that the manifestation of certain types of social risks will be mitigated. But such a development perspective leads to the degradation of the entire economic system, a drop in the country's competitiveness and, as a consequence, a decrease in the material well-being of the population. According to the target scenario, two opposite processes are predicted with negative consequences that are directly related to the degree of implementation of digitalization. The first one is responsible for the growth of external labor migration, the second is unemployment. Conditions will also be created for the precarization employment, and the risks of social exclusion and social isolation will increase. The advantages of the proposed scientific and methodological approach to assessing social risks based on the use of Path analysis lies in its versatility, which makes it possible to use it even with a change in the initial indicators and the inclusion of cause-effect relationships and the probabilities of risk manifestation without violating the basic model of the concept.