FORECASTING RECESSION IN USA AFTER COVID’19: USING YIELD CURVE SPREAD AND VARIOUS ECONOMIC FACTORS

This paper uses Logit Model to forecast whether the US economy will be under recession or not due to the damage caused by the coronavirus disease which has turned the entire world upside down. Economies around the world have seen sharp decline in the GDP numbers with unemployment rate being all time high and inflation on the rise due to Quantitative easing measures taken by the government, trying to bring the economy back in good condition. Logit Model will be used to predict recession along with various independent variables like Payroll, CPI inflation, unemployment rate and yield curve spread, represented by spread between 2-year and 10-year government papers and dependent variable being the recession in US economy.