ASSESSMENT OF THE STRATEGIC RISKS OF ENTERPRISE REENGINEERING WHICH ARE RESULTING IN THE MODERNIZATION OF THE SOFTWARE OF HERITAGE SYSTEMS

The article presents the main hypotheses and their conditional probabilities of strategic risks during enterprise reengineering that arise during the modernization of software for hereditary production systems, which include: assessment of the current state of obsolete systems; the effectiveness of software modernization approaches; architecture and prioritization for software simplification; ensure optimal performance; creating a code document regarding the future growth of the system; creating a separate schedule for supporting and utilizing the hereditary system and an effective budget for training and updating the system. The statistical measurement in the quantitative or qualitative assessment of risk in the onset of these events is taken as an a priori value of probabilities. A formula is derived for the probability of occurrence of an event of effective minimization of strategic risks during enterprise reengineering that arise during the modernization of software for hereditary production systems based on the formula of full probability. To implement the model matrices of expert pairwise comparisons are presented on the importance of each event from complete groups of events. Conclusions are made about the importance of software, as well as software engineering, which must meet the specific requirements of real-time and reliability.