BITCOIN MARKET, VOLATILITY ANALYSIS AND FUTURE PROJECTION AS A TOOL FOR FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
Journal: International Journal of Management (IJM) (Vol.12, No. 1)Publication Date: 2021-01-31
Authors : Mohammed Elamine BOUDKHIL Mebarek BENZAIR Mostafa BENCHELLAT;
Page : 1514-1522
Keywords : Bitcoin; Volatility; virtual currencies; Cryptocurrency;
Abstract
In recent years, all cryptocurrencies have experienced a rapid increase in value and a new high demand for cryptocurrencies. Supported by the fact that regulators, international corporations and investors are enthusiastic about the future of cryptocurrencies. And paying close attention to rapid advances in technology, thinking that Bitcoin will contribute to financial development. But the breadth of growing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has fueled fear, and has also garnered more attention to its increasing influence, as wildly fluctuating values increase the negative effects of technology on the economy and the governance challenges of Bitcoin. Throughout this review, we are attempting to reflect on the economic consequences of Bitcoin and to find a reasonable way to estimate the financial market of Bitcoin in the light of its non-linear conduct. Making the behavior volatile, non-linear and unpredictable by adding Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH/GARCH) model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to the area of expert structures, forecasting and modeling as linear models for forecasting. And Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model as a non-linear model with better performance in forecasting. we found that nonlinear model (ANN) outperform linear models (ARIMA and ARCH/GARCH). And consequently, the effective role of ANN model to improve the bitcoin capital market forecasting.
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