FINDING THE VOLUME OF SUPPLY OF RAW MATERIALS FOR THE ENTERPRISE WITH THE SET PROBABILITY OF RAW MATERIAL DEFICIT

The article considers the key issue in optimizing the activities of the enterprise, which is the construction of its production program taking into account the most rational use of enterprise resources. This causes a number of significant changes in the field of logistics of production for the successful development of the enterprise, which will largely depend not only on the marketing strategy, but also on the purchase of products it needs. It is shown that there is a need to implement new approaches to the organization and management of processes of material support of production, provided that the timely provision of production with material resources depends on the size and completeness of production stocks in warehouses, and the creation of such stocks allows the release of materials in accordance with the requirements of the technological process. It is shown that when managing production or inventories there are two main questions: when to replenish the stock and what should be its optimal size, given that stocks require certain costs for their storage until they are sold. At the same time, the company's losses increase primarily due to the fact that part of working capital is invested in inventories. It is proved that in each case it is important to build a mathematical model describing the studied system, and on its basis to find the optimal ratio between costs and benefits of the selected level of stocks and determine what stocks for each group of goods or raw materials are sufficient. The methods used to ensure the necessary conditions for effective management of material flows are presented: deterministic calculation methods (used in the calculation of secondary demand for materials according to the known primary); analytical methods (calculation is based on the product specification); synthetic methods (provides for calculations for each group of parts based on the degree of their applicability at individual levels of the hierarchy); stochastic calculation methods (allow to establish the expected need on the basis of numerical data that characterize its changes over a period of time); approximation methods, exponential smoothing method and regression analysis. The problem is considered when the consumption of raw materials in the main production is a random variable with some intensity, provided that raw materials are systematically supplied to cover costs. It is assumed that the value of the optimal value, which determines the absence of shortage and balance of raw materials, and the total consumption of raw materials is equal to the volume of its supply — has a gamma distribution with parameters of the supply of raw materials in conventional units of cost and intensity of raw materials. hour in conventional units of value. The flow of events with a constant intensity of raw material costs in conventional units of cost per hour is considered, and the random variable is the time required for the occurrence of a given number of events (volume of raw material supply). A period of time has been found, given a specific volume of supply and a given intensity, when there will be no shortage of raw materials in production.