The Geopolitics of Ideology: Intellectual Tumult and the Slow Demise of a World Order

International political orders do not endure permanently but there is no reliable method by which the general health of an international system can be assessed at any given point in time. The collapse of an international political order can begin without clear, prolonged warning. This occurred at least twice in the twentieth century. First, a seemingly robust multipolar political system descended into three decades of war and crisis; by the latter 1940s, a bipolar system had emerged from the wreckage. Before its swift collapse, the bipolar Cold War system had appeared essentially stable for several decades. It was replaced by an American-dominated essentially neoliberal PostCold War order that now is at an advanced state of decay. This analysis explores the likelihood that political ideology will play a major role in the future reorganization of the international system, and the danger that ideological clashes will create an environment conducive to the outbreak of Great Powers' war. At present, broadly neoliberal ideological assumptions dominate the global discussion of international political discourse. As a result, future Great Power war is treated as being extremely unlikely, if not impossible. This article, however, contends that a variety of factors particularly technological and related social change, will likely result in a period of ideological foment and clashes of values. In turn, this will create an environment with certain broad and troubling similarities to that of the early twentieth century. The article argues that it would be highly desirable for states, particularly Great Powers, to consider these likely future developments carefully and work in concert to prevent the development of international conditions favorable to the outbreak of a Third World War.