Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endemic Lizards (Squamata: Sauria) in Cuba

Climate change has modified the distribution and abundance of numerous species. Being ectotherms, reptiles are especially susceptible to this phenomenon, which worldwide threatens almost 40 % of known species of lizards. Its impact on the herpetofauna of Cuba has been little studied. Therefore, we estimate the possible effects of climate change on the distribution of 46 endemic lizard species. To modelling the climatic niche of the species with the MaxEnt program, we used 3 698 presence records and 17 WorldClim bioclimatic variables. For transferring to the future, we used two climate scenarios with RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, at two times periods (2050 and 2070). We assumed vulnerability as the potential reduction of future areas of climatic suitability (ACS) compared to current ones. We superimposed the distributions to detect sites of greater potential richness and those of greater exposure to climate change. We evaluated the models obtained as useful and excellent according to the AUC values, reflecting their high predictive capacity. The most extensive current ACS corresponded to Anolis equestris (98 213 km2), and the smallest to A. quadriocellifer (3 074 km2). With the most alarming scenario (RCP 8.5), a loss of more than 30 % of the ACS and a greater probability of extinction in their current areas of occupation was predicted in almost 85 % of the species by 2070. Mesophilic species showed greater vulnerability, losing 30.8 to 100 % of their future ACS for the RCP 8.5 scenario. The trend in all projections was the reduction of ACS, mainly in the West and Center regions. The greater richness of lizards, and the greater gain and stability of future ACS, corresponded to the main mountainous massifs of the country, so that these regions could act as climatic refuges against the conditions of climate change. However, the little dispersal capacity of these species and low landscape connectivity resulting from anthropic activities could limit the future colonization of available habitats.