Forecasting the Drought in Bali using the Multilayer Perceptron Method

Disasters have a huge impact on a country and a region. Bali is one of the provinces in Indonesia which has some disaster, one of the disasters that occurred in Bali was drought. Forecasting of droughtinn Bali is necessary so that the government can prevent and manage this kind disastersand can make wise decisions based on information regarding the number of drought. This study aims to predict the number of drought in the next five years. The method used is the Multilayer Perceptron because it is able to predict time series events. The data used are drought disaster events from 2011 to 2019. The results of the analysis in this study indicate that the best Learning Rate and Hidden Layer for forecasting the number of disaster events are Learning Rate 0.7 and Hidden Layer 3.2 respectively with MAPE accuracy is 19.91 . Forecasting results in the coming years show that there is an increase and decrease in the number of drought in 2020 to 2024. Ni Putu Ratih Andini Putri "Forecasting the Drought in Bali using the Multilayer Perceptron Method" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-2 , February 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38460.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/computer-science/data-miining/38460/forecasting-the-drought-in-bali-using-the-multilayer-perceptron-method/ni-putu-ratih-andini-putri