FORECASTING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE COMPETITIVE POSITION OF THE AGRARIAN SECTOR OF THE REGION

The article is devoted to the study of the problems of assessing and predicting the sustainability of the competitive positions of the agricultural sector in the region. The analysis of theoretical approaches to the definition of the studied categories is carried out. It has been substantiated that sustainable competitive positions can be ensured by sustainable competitive advantages. For the agricultural sector, it will be most expedient to obtain competitive advantages based on internal competitive advantages, that is, dominance in the industry due to the efficient use of resources. Based on the essence of the competitive position, a methodological approach to assessing the competitive position has been substantiated, which provides for an integral assessment using indices of individual indicators in comparing industry average and regional values. It is proposed to take into account the specifics of the industry when assessing and predicting the sustainability of the competitive position of the agricultural sector in the region. To assess the sustainability of the competitive position, a method is proposed for comparing the rates of change in the main economic indicators of the agricultural sector of the region and the industry as a whole. The assessment of the competitive position of the agrarian sector of the region is carried out in comparison with the industry average indicators for the main components of the competitive potential. It is proved that the adoption of effective management decisions to ensure the sustainability of a competitive position is impossible without presenting the future trajectory of the development of events and the influences of factors of the internal and external environment. Forecasting is an important tool for taking into account future changes when making management decisions. The article calculates the predicted values of the integral index of competitive position stability and its components using the exponential smoothing method using the Brown-Mayer model, which made it possible to assess the dynamics and development trends of the agricultural sector in the region. It has been proved that in order to achieve competitive advantages, enterprises in the agricultural sector of the region should focus on the effective use of internal resources, which in the future will form the basis of sustainable development.