EVALUATION MODAL OF THE POSSIBILITY TO COMPLETE THE MILITARY TASK OF THE NATIONAL GUARD OF UKRAINE'S DIVISION DURING THE MARCH

Presented model can allow commanders of the National Guard of Ukraine divisions and other military formations to evaluate and achieve the predicted possibility of successful execution of a combat task by the guard during the march of the main forces column. The calculations are based on the tactical and technical characteristics of the available weapons, military equipment, observation means and the application of the probability theory and modeling to evaluate the predicted ability to perform the main tasks by marching guard of a mechanized company, such as the sentinel department, which performs the march for an independent combat task in a limited time and conditions of military combat. An increased threat to the National Guard of Ukraine divisions during the march may be ambushed by an enemy using armored vehicles on the columns movement routes. Non-timely detection of an enemy's ambush by marching guard can lead to considerable casualties among the personnel in the division, armament and military equipment, as evidenced by the numerous facts of shelling of enemy forces in the east of Ukraine. Therefore, greater focus should be placed on marching guard divisions. The success of a combat task performance by the marching guard during the march depends more on the commander's combat experience, which may not be sufficient or absent. The phase-by-phase model application makes it possible to evaluate and achieve the predicted ability to successfully complete combat missions by the marching guard during the march. The system of hypotheses and assumptions adopted during the study includes: − the spiritual and psychological welfare, the level of preparation (training) of the marching guard personnel and the division during the march are considered sufficient to carry out the combat task, so the “human factorˮ is not taken into account in the calculations; − the probability to destroy the enemy, and the type of weapon known and do not change under various combined arms conditions; − the range of conducting intelligence of marching guard is assumed to be equal to the tactical and technical characteristics of the available surveillance means; − camouflage, terrain, weather conditions are not taken into account. The adequacy assessment of projected results is achieved through using of known and proven approaches to combat modeling. Evaluation of the obtained results can be done by comparing theoretical calculations with the already existing results of the fighting in the east of Ukraine and the experience gained in the relevant analyzes of the fighting, information and reports.