Study on Trade Complementarity and Trade Potential between China and Kazakhstan in the Background of One Belt and One Road

In 2016, Kazakhstan will start the second Five-Year Plan of development strategy from 2010 to 2020. Under the background of New Silk Road in China and the new situation of strategic adjustment of economic structure in Kazakhstan, the paper re-examines the potential for Sino-Kazakhstan trade. Based on trade data between China and Kazakhstan from 2002 to 2014, by making use of trade complementarity index, trade specialization coefficient and other tools, the author analyzes trade complementarity between China and Kazakhstan, makes clear the basis for trade between the two countries. By adopting the relevant data between China and 30 partner countries, the author establishes gravity model to study on the trade potential between China and Kazakhstan to make clear the market space between the two countries. Studies show that China has a comparative advantage in labor and capital-intensive products, while Kazakhstan has a comparative advantage in resource-intensive products, trade complementarity between the two countries on products with the comparative advantage is very strong, but the bilateral trade complementarity is still in the initial stage of transfers of inter-industry surplus and deficiency, it is estimated by the gravity model that the potential of trade between China and Kazakhstan belongs to great potential type and there is an increasing trend in terms of trade space. Accordingly, the author proposes countermeasures to increase investment cooperation between China and Kazakhstan and create new modes of cooperation.