Dynamic modeling of macroeconomic indicators taking into account the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and oil prices in the Republic of Azerbaijan in the postoil period

The study focuses on the dynamic modeling of the relations of macroindicators, such as the paid services to the population norm, the public spending norm, the investment norm, the import norm, export norm, exchange rate, inflation, interest rates in the Republic of Azerbaijan in the post-oil period based on monthly statistics for the period 2015-2020, taking into account the impacts of the devaluation that occurred twice in 2015, the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and oil prices. A fourth-order vector error correction model (VECM (4)) has been developed, and impulse responses of variables to positive shocks of model variables are analyzed, and decompositions of forecast variance is studied