The Effect of Gorbachev’s Anti-Alcohol Campaign on Cardiovascular Mortality in Belarus

Background: The mounting body of research evidence point to binge drinking pattern as a potentially important contributor to cardiovascular mortality crisis in the former Soviet republics. Aim: To analyze the trends in BAC (blood alcohol concentration)-positive and BAC-negative cardiovascular mortality in Belarus between 1979 and 2007 in relation to binge drinking. Method: Trends in fatal alcohol poisoning (as a proxy for binge drinking) and cardiovascular deaths from 1980 to 2007 were analyzed employing a distributed lags analysis. In all 155616 cardiovascular deaths (ICD-10 codes 100-99) and 59489 fatal alcohol poisoning (code X 45.0-45.9) cases were examined with respect to the Bureau of Forensic Medicine autopsy reports. Results: Alcohol in blood was found in 37.5% victims of cardiovascular mortality for the whole period, with the minimum figure 29.8% in 1986 and maximum 50.8% in 1981. Alcohol-related cardiovascular mortality was more affected by the restriction of alcohol availability during anti-alcohol campaign: between 1989 and 1986 the number of BAC-positive cardiovascular deaths shrank by 33.6%, while the number of BACnegative deaths increased by 14.4%. The outcomes of distributed lags analysis suggest statistically significant association between the number of fatal alcohol poisoning and the number of BAC-positive cardiovascular deaths at zero lag. Conclusions: The findings from this study provide support for the binge drinking hypothesis, suggesting that episodic heavy drinking of spirits is an important determinant of cardiovascular mortality crisis in the former Soviet republic Belarus.