ECONOMETRIC EVALUATION OF FACTORS OF INFLUENCE ON LABOR POTENTIAL OF UKRAINE

The labor potential of the country is a socio-economic category, with the help of which it is possible to obtain a comprehensive description of the productive forces of the working population. At the macro level, labor potential is a complex integrated system that depends on many factors. Important quantitative indicators of labor potential at the macro level are the supply of labor, the number of employable population, taking into account the level of their education and skills. Factors influencing labor potential have often been studied in the works of Ukrainian scientists. Most authors believe that the most significant influence on the state of labor potential are demographic, environmental, geographical, socio-economic, socio-psychological, legal, informational and -communicative, technical and organizational and sectoral factors. Quantitative economic and demographic factors can be considered the most significant and well-formalized. Econometric analysis is used to study their impact on the working and unemployed population. It has been shown that there is a strong correlation between employment and unemployment, GDP, population and wages. Using the econometrics apparatus, three factorial and two-factorial linear regression models were constructed, which linked the indicator of employment rate with the factor variables of wages, the number of unemployed, the value of GDP in actual prices, and the number of retirees. A two-factor spatial model was also built, which linked the unemployment rate to the factor variables of expenditures and incomes at the regional level. Statistical criteria were calculated for each of the models, which allow to assess the accuracy and adequacy of the models. Almost all models presented in the article demonstrated satisfactory values of quality and accuracy criteria. Point and interval forecasts of explanatory variables were built, which help to predict the situation in a crisis of labor potential and make the correct management decision.