Global Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic
Journal: International Journal of Natural Disasters & Health Security (IJNHS) (Vol.07, No. 01)Publication Date: 2020-11-30
Authors : Roqaiya Perween;
Page : 53-64
Keywords : COVID-19; WHO; Asymptotic Increase; ANOVA; Variance; Rate of Growth; Social Distancing; Droplet Transmission; SARS-CoV-2; Expected Parity Index.;
Abstract
In order to come up with an overview to statistical analysis of the major deadly corona virus disease, the paper provides a critical assessment of global situation of COVID-19 pandemic. In order to come up with a perceptive result, a complete collection of 90 days records (WHO situation reports) of the pandemic have been studied and relevant information have extracted to prepare a working model of dataset. Several statistical measures such as regression, variance, distributions, t-test and ANOVA test have been conducted to understand and explore the ongoing situations and to predict the fore-coming scenario, rate of growth and possible risk assessment of the transmission. Apart from this, an inclusive model of time series analysis of each case has been prepared to predict the expected time for which the pandemic can sustain or rise eventually. It has concluded that the pandemic has suffered from three different phases of transmission, the linear, the non-increasing and exponent. At the end of the paper, the rate of growth along with the growth estimation curve of each case (in general a model) has been developed to estimate the maxima and minima of fluctuation.To identify the asymptotic growth and expected parity index of models, graphical representation of linear and relative growth between the models has provided.
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