MODEL OF EVALUATING THE VULNERABILITY OF PHYSICAL PROTECTION OF NUCLEAR INSTALLATIONS IN THE ATTACK OF ARMED CRIMINALS

In the course of construction and during operation of the nuclear power plant an assessment of the vulnerability of the physical protection system is carried out. At the same time, the ability of the security unit to prevent sabotage by armed criminals is determined. The security unit of the nuclear power plant opposes to the attack of armed criminals by fighting. The accidental development of fire contacts, the uncertainty of data on the number of criminals, their weapons and the design of action give rise to the problem of assessing the vulnerability of the physical protection system in the event of armed criminals attacking. Therefore, the purpose of the article is to develop a model for assessing the vulnerability of the physical protection system of a nuclear installation when attacked by armed criminals. The main under the process, which is repeated in the course of fighting an alarming group with armed criminals is a fire contact. Each of these contacts begins and ends in a previously unknown (random) time point and has a previously unknown (random) duration and consequences. In the article, the process of fire collision of the reserve group with armed criminals is modeled using the method of analytical-stochastic modeling. The developed model allows to estimate the vulnerability of the system of physical protection during the attack of armed criminals, in which unlike the existing models for predicting the results of the battle of opposing sides, the mathematical apparatus of the Markov processes with continuous time and discrete states and the geographic information system was used.