Scientific and methodical approach to the estimation of the risk level of public-private partnership projects

The aim of the article. The aim of the article is improvement of scientific and methodical approach to complex estimation of innovative projects risks through public-private partnership.The results of the analysis. Different models of state and business cooperation that are implemented through the public-private partnership are identified as an effective instrument of such special group of innovative projects as infrastructure projects. During the realization of public-private partnership such special features of infrastructure innovative projects as long-term and contractual character of relationships play one of the most important role. It becomes possible to implement using special forms of public-private partnership and financing models, realization of partner relation on competitive base, diversification of responsibility and risk between participants of public-private partnership.Risk of public-private partnership is recommended to identify as an economic category that characterizes probabilistic assessment of objective threat of losing by public-private partnership participants their material, financial, intellectual resources, subjectively expected revenue shortfall, creation of additional expenditures or any other deviations from the predicted parameters of efficiency. It can happen in a result of making decision about public and private sector cooperation during realization and in the result of changes in investment policy, innovative infrastructure projects innovation and investment environments.Realization of innovative projects in public-private partnership is connected with significant risks that occur at each stage of its realization and preparation. The long-term investments of innovative infrastructure projects, its high value and big quantity of participants, complex system of its financing and organizational structure cause that very urgent task in such projects realization is necessity of taking into account its investment risks and creation an effective management system.Scientific and methodical approach to the realization of comprehensive analysis and assessment of projects risks hich are financed with resources of public and private partners is proposed. It provides a detailed study of individual innovative projects risk and vertical analysis of these risks through the factors of its creation that are specific for public-private partnership. There is also an opportunity for these factors quantitative and qualitative identification on the base of the World Bank statistical indicators of innovative projects realization.Key stages of detailed researching of innovative projects risks that are realized through the public-private partnership are following:- formation of the information database for innovative projects risks characterizing in dynamic;- risks study on the base of the sensitivity analysis of factors appropriated for innovation projects assessment; the result of this stage is formed model of the selected factors relationship and identification of major risk factors;- innovative project risks assessment as a measure of the variability of results through the calculation of the average weighted module of deviation from the grouping center, the average weighted deviation from modal value, the average weighted deviation from optimal value, variance and standard deviation, semi-variation and semi-standard deviation.Vertical analysis of the innovative projects risks includes the next procedure:- formation of statistical database for innovative projects risks characteristic;- sensitivity analysis of innovative projects risks factors as a set by the creation of risk factors econometric model and risk variables cohesion.This scientific and methodical approach gives an opportunity for comprehensive assessment of risk level of different factors during innovative projects investment process in public-private partnership. This one unlike existing approaches allows to take into account the specific factors for this form of state and business cooperation.Conclusions and directions of further researches. Developed scientific and methodical approach to the complex assessment of innovative projects risks is oriented on identification of basic risk formation factors. It allows to arise the quality of state investment policy creation taking into account the objective function and its variation as a result of factor changing. This approach is based on the use of econometric modeling of desired effect dependence e on the system of investment risks formation factors. Also it allows to identify risk factors of public-private partnership innovative projects with the aim to formate an adequate system of monitoring and resistance of its destructive influence.Directions of further researches is horizontal analysis of innovative projects risks that can be systematized by the branches of the economy. Such analysis might be oriented on optimal risks distribution between partners while choosing among public-private partnership projects that are realized in different branches of economy.