Economic Circumstances of the Formation of the International Marshall Plan for the Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine

Against the background of the Russian Federation's full-scale aggression against Ukraine, which is still ongoing, Ukraine and the world community are forming a modern Marshall Plan for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. At the current moment, such a plan is in a state of very generalized ideas and does not yet reflect many economic circumstances in and around Ukraine on the eve of the start of the process of its post-war reconstruction. The purpose of the article is to draw attention to the economic circumstances of the formation of the international Marshall Plan for Ukraine in terms of assessing the dynamics of direct and indirect war losses of Ukraine, the need for labor and financial resources, and the duration of the implementation of the plan's programs. According to published data, the value of Ukraine's direct military losses as a result of full-scale aggression by the Russian Federation at the beginning of autumn 2022 was estimated at 127 billion dollars USA, and the total losses, taking into account indirect losses, are estimated at no less than 750 billion dollars USA. According to the data of the constructed regression model, the amount of direct war losses of Ukraine during the hottest period of the war increased by 320 million dollars every day, which should be taken into account when determining the total amount of funding for the reconstruction of Ukraine under the Marshall Plan being created. It is shown that as a result of the migration of the population during the war, the number of labor resources of Ukraine decreased from 15.9 million to 12.8 million people with a loss of 3.1 million. Counting possible percentage of their involvement in restoration works can be calculated at approximately 2.146 million people who can be directly involved in restoration works. It is shown that when planning the implementation of the Marshall Plan for Ukraine, the duration of the implementation of individual processes and programs is determined by dividing the total estimate of war losses by the monetary estimate of the maximum possible amount of reconstruction works per year, if they are fully financed. If the annual amount of financial resources is not enough, then the planned duration of restoration works must be calculated by dividing the amount of direct losses not by the annual capacity of available labor resources, but by the planned amount of available financial funds. Conclusions regarding the need to take into account the economic circumstances of the formation of the international Marshall Plan for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine are formulated.