Long-term factors and trends in the development of the Ukrainian chemical industry

The chemical industry is an important industrial sector of the global economy and one of the main drivers of its innovative development. Today, the industry is searching for answers to modern climate, energy and technological challenges, working out the sectoral features of the digital transition, implementation of the sustainability paradigm. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the current state of the Ukrainian chemical industry and define the prospects for its development under the influence of key long-term factors and trends. We demonstrate that the national chemical sector is in a long-term downward trend caused by structural imbalances and a deep crisis of the long-standing model of chemical manufacturing. At the same time, several new positive trends and growth points, which can become the basis of the long-term development of Ukrainian chemical production, are evolving. The author's conceptual approach to determining factors and trends in the development of the Ukrainian chemical industry includes: (1) highlighting of the great cross-industry importance of chemical production as a system-forming factor, (2) researching of key global megatrends and their influence as long-term national factors, (3) considering of internal and external dimensions of transformations, (4) analyzing of trend synergy and cross-industry synergy, (5 ) identifying of specific priorities by industry segments. The driving power for long-term transformations of the chemical business is the mutually reinforcing influence of two global megatrends – the development of technologies of the fourth industrial revolution and the achievement of sustainable development goals. The long-term guidelines for the development of the Ukrainian chemical industry are related to digitalization, customization, circularity, climate neutrality, resource efficiency and cross-sectoral integration. In this work, based on the analysis of the current state of the national chemical industry and its different segments, as well as the identification of determinants of long-term development, we outline several trends that have a long-term potential for implementation in Ukraine. These include such trends as creating of small-tonnage production of differentiated chemicals with an innovative component and import substitution potential; deepening the interaction of chemical manufacturers with consumers using digital platforms; developing of regional innovation ecosystems, boosting cluster initiatives and designing of smart specialization strategies with an emphasis on cross-industry integration; decarbonization, increasing of bio-based products, deepening of other ecological and safety components of production and consumption of chemicals; reforming the system of technical regulation of production and circulation of chemicals in accordance with the requirements of the European Union.