Demographic development of the North Caucasian Federal District of Russia and approaches to its regulation

Demographic trends, along with economic, political, social and cultural ones, play a key role in the dynamics of regional development. This is especially relevant for the North Caucasus Federal District of Russia (NCFD), considered as a region of primary geostrategic importance for the Russian Federation, which requires the development of specialized programs for demographic and migration regulation. This study attempts to analyze the key aspects that determine the dynamics of demographic changes in the regions of the NCFD of Russia. The main demographic characteristics of the NCFD are considered in comparison with Russia as a whole. These features are manifested in the predominance of a younger population, the observed increase in the number of residents and relatively high rates of total fertility. The dynamics of changes in the total population of the NCFD is determined, and the components of this change are analyzed — natural and migration growth. It is revealed that the district is experiencing population decline due to migration, including population exchange with other subjects of the Russian Federation, foreign countries and the CIS states (Commonwealth of Independent States). The main factor stimulating the outflow of population are socio-­economic conditions. The North Caucasus, with its high population density and ethnic diversity, is of primary importance in terms of regulating migration flows and optimizing migration policy. This is due to the need to take into account the specifics of the socio-­economic and demographic development of this region. The specifics of the problems this region faces are fundamentally different from the situation in most Russian regions. The study attaches particular importance to the Strategy for the Socio-­Economic Development of the NCFD until 2030. Improving the demographic picture in such strategically important regions as the NCFD will not only contribute to the socio-­economic development of these territories, but will also contribute to the national well-­being of Russia.