Special Analysis For Predicting Changes In Mangrove Forest

Abstract This study aims to determine the mangrove forest land cover change and farms based on the interpretation of satellite imagery and predict the extent and determine the area of mangrove rehabilitation based on the rate of change in land cover and land suitability analysis is based on the physical parameters of mangrove forests in the district Ponrang Luwu. Land suitability classification refers to the Land Suitability Classification Framework Method According to FAO 1976 are divided into three classes namely suitability Great Fit Highly Suitable Self-keeping Moderately Suitable and Not Available Not Suitable. The parameters used in the texture of the soil slope salinity temperature flow velocity wave and tidal. Making the land suitability analysis model for the growth and development of mangrove ponds Silvofishery system using weighted overlay overlaying weighted. The study concluded that the analysis of the changes by using the image data in 1994 and 2002 image shows a reduction in mangrove area of 269.16 ha whereas farms have additional land area of 587.65 ha. The pace of change by using the image data in 2002 and 2013 image shows an area of 36.28 ha of mangrove reduction and addition of 85.5 ha of pond area. Analysis of the trend of changes in the area of mangroves generate predictions of mangrove area in 2023 or 10 years down the road is 88.1 ha. Based on the analysis of land suitability the area that includes the appropriate category for the development of Silvofishery pond has an area of 557.86 ha and the area is very appropriate criteria included its range of 1071.98 ha. As for the category Mismatch has an area of 301.67 ha.