INFORMATION AND MATHEMATICAL ALGORITHM OF OBJECTIFICATION OF TUBERCULOSIS MORBIDITY UNDER RELATIVE EPIDEMIC STABILITY

For this purpose, the annual report forms provided by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the results of our observations and the data from the bank information accumulation system "MS EXCEL" were used. Results and Discussion. The initial position was formed on the basis of epidemiological indicators in Ukraine and Lviv region over a ten year period of observation (2000-2009. Due to the different characteristics of ascending, the above mentioned period was divided into the first phase (2000- 2004), marked by a progressive deterioration of the epidemiological situation of tuberculosis, and the second phase (2005-2009), during which a relative stabilization of the epidemic was noted. The results were processed using statistical and mathematical functions of the program "MS EXCEL", parametric and nonparametric characteristics to establish correlation dynamics in assessing the epidemiological indicators. The published research data pointed to a clear upward trend in the tuberculosis incidence in Ukraine (1,2 times) in the first phase of observation from 29,2 to 34,9 in relation to the index in 2000. At the same time, the incidence of tuberculosis in Lviv region during the first phase of observation showed a relative annual stabilization of the indicators followed by a significant decrease against its much higher level in 2000 (39,1) compared with the same parameters across Ukraine. In particular, by the end of 2004 observations, the incidence rate of teenage population pointed to its decline in relation to 2000 from 39,1 to 29,8. The obtained results at the second phase of the observations justified some stabilization of tuberculosis incidence in the teenage population in Ukraine with small positive dynamics of this indicator in recent years of observation. Along with that, the tuberculosis incidence in Ukraine in 2009 decreased slightly from 34,9 to 31,2, and in Lviv region a significant reduction (almost twofold) of TB cases from 27,2 to 14,2 was noted. Among children, the incidence of tuberculosis in Ukraine was of a permanent character and ranged from 9,0 to 9,3 during the first and from 8,9 to 8,8 second phase of observation. Thus, the incidence of tuberculosis among adolescents is more than three times higher than similar rates in children. This tendency continued at both the first and the second stages of the study. In terms of the average incidence a significant difference between the incidence of tuberculosis in children (9,1±0,7) in relation to adolescents (31,7±1,9) age (p<0,05) was obtained. The dynamics of TB cases in Ukraine among adults point to a moderate increase (1.3 times) of this indicator during the first phase of observation from 60,2 to 80,9, while at the second stage there was a certain stabilization of this indicator with an unstable tendency to decrease (from 84,1 to 79,7).