Theoretico-methodological foundations for social forecast and simulation in information technology

The current article is an attempt to consider the condition, when social forecasting, theorists and the workers of which could earlier only dream to use the computers as the instrument of their own activity, has in the cybernetic projects of the second half of the XX century become itself a needed tool of the endeavors of the unseen scale, namely ? the idea of automated production management within groups of different sizes ? from enterprises to entire states. The essence of the proposed research lies either within revealing the conditions of opportunity to embody and successfully fulfill the AMS (automated management system) project, or within formulating those mistakes that could have explained impossibility of the AMS or only its partial success. Analysis of the pioneers’ of cybernetics intentions discovers the foundations of their reflections but also some theoretical mistakes, mainly the fundamental non-compliance of especially human character of world-view and goal-setting with the target statuses of the system, keeping which could be the program of the system-maintaining computers