Pipeline Corrosion Prediction And Reliability Analysis A Systematic Approach With Monte Carlo Simulation And Degradation Models

Abstract - In this research Monte Carlo Simulation and degradation models were used to predict the corrosion rate and reliability of oil and gas pipelines. Discrete random numbers simulated from historic data were used to predict the corrosion rate using Brownian Random walk while the mean time for failure MTFF was estimated with the degradation models. The Survivor probability of the pipelines was determined with weibull analysis using the MTFF. The result of the study shows that the degradation models and Monte Carlo simulation can predict the corrosion rate of the pipelines to an accuracy of between 83.3-98.6 and 85.2- 97 respectively.